Title: AI-Headline Basket Selling vs. Businesses That Aren't Really Exposed: Boyar's "Hated Five," the CRM-Anthropic Rebound Template, a 2026 Junk-Over-Quality Tape, and Multiples Compressing With the 10-Year Near 5%
Author / source: Jonathan Boyar (principal, Boyar Value Group / Boyar Asset Management / Boyar's Intrinsic Value Research), return guest, with hosts Josh Brown and Michael Batnick (Ritholtz / The Compound)
Source title: People Hate These 5 Stocks But They'll Be Wrong | TCAF 261
Source URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtyP1cIOQfc
Video ID: qtyP1cIOQfc
Published: 2026-09-25 (YouTube upload date). The exact recording date wasn't stated, and "today" references (MGM −10%, Flutter at an all-time low) are relative to it. External check needed to pin the date.
Duration: 1:06:28
Memo date: Sunday, September 27, 2026 (America/Toronto)
Transcript paths: /workspace/youtube-transcripts/qtyP1cIOQfc.md (timestamped) · /workspace/youtube-transcripts/qtyP1cIOQfc_plain.txt · Brief: /workspace/youtube-transcripts/qtyP1cIOQfc_brief.md
Caption / ASR caveats: This is built from YouTube automatic ASR captions only (en-orig). There is no speaker diarization, so attributing lines to Brown, Batnick or Boyar is inferred from context (for example, "Josh, remember I was asking…" has to be Batnick). Timestamps are approximate cue-group starts. The AI consumer-app names ("Instinct" / "Muse") and the Diller/MGM bid figures are ASR-garbled and are not quoted as numbers here. Other proper nouns are locked below.
Product: A systems map and research agenda for allocation thinking. Not investment advice. No buy/sell recommendations. Boyar's positions and views are source expressions from an interested party (he runs money and sells research, promoting his "Fresh Looks" report and Substack), not desk recommendations.
Source discipline: The primary source is this transcript only. The brief (Monica) was used for orientation and cross-checked against the transcript, and several brief attributions were corrected (see Appendix B). Monica's desk angle is used as a framing prompt and is tested against the transcript, not adopted. The prior TCAF 259 memo (Nordvig) and other desk memos are not merged. Anything not spoken here is marked External check needed. The Grayscale ad read (0:00:11–0:00:42) and the closing promo are ignored. No market data was fetched for this memo. Per the desk rule, marks would come only from the TradingView or IBKR connectors (read-only), and none were pulled.
ASR name / term locks:
| ASR heard | Intended (context-inferred) |
|---|---|
| Buyer / Boyer / Ber / Boy Value / Boyarm's | Boyar (Jonathan; Boyar Value Group / Asset Management / Intrinsic Value Research) |
| Gayscale | Grayscale (sponsor) |
| SAS apocalypse | SaaS apocalypse |
| Mac 7 | Mag 7 |
| Julian Klotchko | Chart author's name uncertain. Do not cite a name without an External check |
| Instinct / Muse / Muser | AI consumer-assistant app names: ASR-garbled / unverified |
| Hazel; "Vanguard actually bought Hazel bought Altruist" | AI/wealth-tech product "Hazel" (name uncertain). Acquisition clause is ASR-garbled. Do not state who bought whom |
| LPL and Ray | LPL Financial, Raymond James (RJF) |
| Dra / DAR | Dara Khosrowshahi (Uber CEO) |
| Whimo | Waymo |
| Ferve / Fiser | Fiserv |
| Glenn Fogle V | Glenn Fogel (Booking CEO) |
| Daario | Dario Amodei (Anthropic) at Dreamforce |
| Chat Gebt | ChatGPT |
| Todd Combmes | Todd Combs |
| heliloc | HELOC |
| Hunbaggers | 100 Baggers (Chris Mayer) |
| IA | IAC (Diller's vehicle): inferred |
| calcies | Kalshi-type prediction markets: inferred |
| seinals | Seminoles (Seminole Tribe / Hard Rock) |
| Win / Vich / Vichi | Wynn / VICI Properties |
| "Ben MGM has a China business" | Most likely MGM (MGM China exposure). Inferred |
| Diller bid "$48… 38… $33 a share" | ASR-garbled. Not quoted as data |
How to read: Source means a restatement of what was said, with a timestamp. Inference means my analysis. Spoken numbers are used as spoken and attributed, and none are verified.
Stance one-liner (source-locked): AI-headline "basket" selling (Goldman thematic baskets, quants, pod shops on tight stop-outs) is de-rating franchises that aren't actually being disrupted (BKNG, ABNB, BR, NYT, SCHW/LPL/RJF). Long-horizon holders get entries, but "15x is not the bottom," so being right on fundamentals can still be wrong on the stock.
Overall conviction: Med that the mechanism is real (headline baskets overshoot on names with weak exposure). Supporting evidence: CRM precedent, SCHW/LPL/RJF around Hazel, NYT −7.2%. Caveat: all of it is anecdotal, and Boyar admits "I don't have statistics." Low–Med on timing and catalysts. Low on any spoken level.
Takeaway 1: AI-headline basket selling is hitting businesses that aren't really exposed, and the speakers see a counter-trade. Source (0:22:28–0:25:37): After the launch of AI consumer-assistant apps (names ASR-garbled), a Goldman "consumer inertia" basket sold off. Names cited were PLNT, NYT (−7.2% "over a couple of days"), SCHW, ADBE, EXPE, BKNG and ABNB. On NYT the speaker said "not at risk at all for disruption." Brown: "there's probably a reflexive counter trade there." Batnick: when "Hazel" launched, SCHW, LPL and RJF fell about 10%. Inference: The research object is headline beta: how much a name falls on AI-launch days versus its actual revenue exposure to agentic substitution. Conviction: Med on the mechanism, Low on magnitude (no statistics were offered).
Takeaway 2: The CRM–Anthropic template is a partnership that ends the de-rating, and Boyar says a "similar setup" is forming now. Source (0:01:43–0:02:15, 0:46:56–0:47:28): CRM "partnered with Anthropic rather than having their throat slit by it." Boyar: "We're starting to get a similar setup now over the last couple days." Brown: "one announcement with OpenAI and… the de-rating is over," pointing to Dreamforce. Boyar pushes back that companies shouldn't sign early or exclusive deals: "They don't want to get married." Inference: In context, the "similar setup" most plausibly refers to the travel / consumer-inertia / BR names (0:16:44: "buy some of these travel stocks for idiotic reasons"), not software specifically. So IGV is where the template came from, not where the current setup is. ADBE is the only IGV-type name placed in the current basket. Conviction: Med that the pattern exists, Low that a partnership catalyst arrives on any given timeline.
Takeaway 3: The 2026 tape has rewarded junk over quality, and quality isn't protecting anyone. Source (0:17:15–0:18:48): The Goldman most-shorted basket is +40% YTD and long/short is −23% (chart author's name ASR-uncertain). MCD is −29% over 144 days from a February peak, and the speaker called a drawdown like that rare (COVID, dot-com). "Quality is not bailing anybody out this year." Boyar compares COST, CTAS and WMT (about 40–50x) to the Nifty Fifty. Inference: The hated-names thesis is fighting two factor headwinds at once: the AI-headline basket and the quality unwind. For the rebound thesis to work, one of them has to turn. Conviction: Med (factor figures are spoken and need an External check).
Takeaway 4: Multiples have compressed in every sector except staples, and the 10-year near 5% is "a significant factor" but not the only one. Source (0:34:30–0:36:06): A host says compression is happening in "every sector except for staples." The host also frames it as a "5% 10-year" world and notes AI "is actually fueling the earnings growth." Boyar: rates are "a significant factor," along with the AI threat and a COVID hangover. The '90s had a 5% 10-year and "stocks did just fine," but it will take investors "a couple of years" to get used to "money isn't free." Inference: This is a rates-vs-multiple regime. The staples exception clashes with Takeaway 3 (quality/MCD falling), and the difference between the staples sector and the broader "quality factor" needs to be reconciled with data. 10-year level: External check needed.
Takeaway 5: Boyar's names are UBER, POOL, QSR and MGM (Japan 2031), plus BR, BKNG and ABNB as AI-mispricing cases. CMCSA is lukewarm, StubHub and NKE are passes. Source: UBER: insiders bought about $10M (CEO) and about $5M (CFO), there's a buyback, he cites about $10B of 2027 FCF "from memory," and "every year this is either my best or worst performing stock" (0:28:14–0:31:54). POOL: 500+ → $167, 15x versus 55x at the COVID peak (0:47:54–0:52:41). QSR: Doyle, Burger King NA "halfway through the recovery," 3–4% yield (0:52:48–0:56:18). MGM: about 16x, "only casino in all of Japan" in 2031, which he says analysts aren't modelling. He expects Diller to return, but the bid figures are ASR-garbled (0:59:53–1:02:28). Inference: These are research objects, not tickets. Each one carries a spoken risk: Brown sees UBER at 12x, POOL is rate/HELOC-sensitive, QSR faces 20–25% beef inflation and GLP-1s, and MGM has China exposure.
Non-obvious angle: headline beta is recurring and forecastable. Brown: "You could set your watch by this… let's go beat [up] Schwab" whenever a disruptive AI product hits the tape (0:24:35). Inference: If the next AI-agent launch reliably hits the same list (SCHW, NYT, BKNG, ABNB, EXPE, ADBE, PLNT, BR), the desk can pre-build an event study. It would measure the drawdown on launch day, the recovery over the next 5, 20 and 60 days, and the dispersion between actually exposed names (PLNT subscription churn, EXPE versus BKNG) and noise names (NYT, SCHW). The disconfirm signal is launch-day drops that don't recover, or that show up in fundamentals such as take-rate, cancellations or cash-sweep balances.
Second non-obvious angle: an AI-agent booking tool could hurt GOOGL more than BKNG. Source (0:43:52–0:44:53): Brown says travel "might be the number two or number three" Google ad category (he said "I think I read this somewhere"). Boyar says the AI agents lack inventory, and he calls agentic booking "a positive for booking." Inference: In the speakers' own framing, the value-chain loser from agentic travel is search-ad intermediation, not the inventory holder. That's a hypothesis for the desk's AI-winner book. The claim is unverified (External check needed).
Why now: Brown says BKNG went "215 down to 157" in September alone (0:43:52). That level needs an External check: it doesn't match the share-price scale I'd expect for BKNG unless there's been a split or ASR/misspeak. Other hooks: ABNB round-tripped 150 → 190 → 150, NYT −7.2%, MGM −10% "today" on the Diller withdrawal, Flutter at an all-time low "today," and BR −25% YTD. All are spoken, and all need a live mark External check (TV/IBKR read-only) before use.
Horizon: Days to weeks for the next AI-launch or basket event. One to two quarters for Q3/Q4 prints to show whether fundamentals are "intact," plus any AI-partnership announcements (BKNG/ABNB). Three to five years or more on Boyar's own horizon, including MGM Japan in 2031.
Sleeve relevance (desk inference, not the speakers'): IGV is Med. It's the home of the CRM precedent, and ADBE sits in the "down on any AI headline" list, so it's a template for AI-panic dips followed by partnership re-rates. Brown's "15x is not the bottom" applies to software multiples too. ARKF is Low–Med. The broker/advisor AI-headline pattern (SCHW/LPL/RJF) and HOOD entering sports betting/prediction markets were both mentioned, but whether SCHW/LPL/RJF are ARKF holdings needs an External check and may be overstated in Monica's desk angle. The cleanest fit is consumer discretionary/travel, financial infrastructure (BR) and brokers, not IGV or ARKF directly.
Overall conviction: Med on the systems read (basket or pod-driven overshoot creates dispersion between exposed and noise names). Low–Med on catalyst timing. Low on every spoken level, multiple and FCF figure until checked.
What the PM can do from this summary alone (research agenda, not trades):
What this is not: It isn't a call to buy any hated name. It isn't evidence that AI agents can't disrupt travel or brokers; the speakers gave rebuttals, not data. It isn't a claim that a CRM-style partnership is imminent for anyone. It doesn't quote Diller bid levels or app names. No buy/sell.
Chronological. Timestamps are ASR cue-group starts (H:MM:SS). Quotes are ≤20 words. Speaker attributions are context-inferred.
A. Trigger node: AI product launch headline (Source). Consumer AI assistant apps (names garbled) or wealth-tech ("Hazel") launch → the narrative becomes "agent cancels subscriptions / books travel / moves cash / replaces adviser."
B. Transmission node: thematic baskets, quants, pod shops (Source). Goldman thematic baskets (consumer inertia, most-shorted) → programmatic selling of every constituent ("nobody thinking") → pod risk limits (cut at −2–5%) → forced de-grossing → "selling begets selling." Inference: This transmission is indiscriminate within the basket, which is where the dispersion comes from: names that really are exposed and names that are just noise fall together.
C. Target node: incumbent franchise economics (Source + Inference).
D. Resolution node: re-rating catalysts (Source). (i) An AI-lab partnership (CRM/Dreamforce, per Brown); (ii) fundamentals intact on the print, with guidance "intact from January" (UBER); (iii) insider buying or buybacks/tenders (UBER); (iv) M&A or take-private (BR, POOL; Diller/MGM); (v) macro: oil down, Iran resolved (BKNG/ABNB), rates easing (POOL). Inference: (i) and (ii) are the scalable signals. (iii) failed to work for UBER in the short run ("stock went down the next day").
E. Macro overlay: rates and factor regime (Source). 10-year "5%" (host framing) → multiples compress in every sector except staples. The quality factor is unwinding (MCD −29%, 40–50x COST/WMT) while the most-shorted basket is +40%. The stock-picking hit rate is secularly falling (23.2% / 27.7%). Inference: Even when a basket overshoots, it may mean-revert slowly in a regime that prices duration and quality harshly. That's the core timing risk.
F. Second-order value-chain loser (Source → Inference). If agentic search replaces travel queries, Google travel ad revenue is the intermediary at risk (Brown, unverified), rather than inventory holders (Boyar). This belongs in the AI-winners book, not the hated-names book.
G. Conflict layer. Boyar owns MSFT and BKNG, "likes" ABNB, and holds UBER, MSG Sports and BATRS (inferred from context). He sells a research product ("Fresh Looks") and manages money. Treat him as an interested source. The hosts are not neutral either (StubHub anecdote, the "biggest pieces of stock" banter on POOL).
Chain 1: Headline beta is recurring, so dispersion and an event-study edge exist (Source → Inference). 1st: Each AI launch sells the same basket (SCHW "you could set your watch by this"). 2nd: Launch-day drops in noise names (NYT, SCHW, BR) mean-revert once fundamentals print. That's the claim; no data was given. 3rd (Inference): As the pattern gets recognized, the recovery window shortens (reflexive counter-trade crowding). The edge decays and migrates to identifying which names really are exposed (PLNT, possibly EXPE). Confirm: successive launches produce smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries in noise names. Disconfirm: drawdowns persist through two or more earnings prints, or show up in KPIs (cancellations, room nights, cash-sweep balances). Watch: basket constituents and launch dates (External).
Chain 2: AI-lab partnership → narrative flip → de-rating ends, following the CRM template (Source → Inference). 1st: CRM–Anthropic at Dreamforce ended the SaaS de-rating (host framing). 2nd: Brown expects the same for BKNG/ABNB from one OpenAI/Anthropic deal. Boyar says firms shouldn't marry early. 3rd (Inference): Partnerships become a supply-side scarce catalyst. The labs pick a few distribution partners per vertical, so non-partnered peers could de-rate further on the same announcement (BKNG vs EXPE dispersion). For IGV, this implies a partnership-announcement calendar matters more than broad AI sentiment. Disconfirm: partnership announcements fail to lift multiples, or labs build their own inventory.
Chain 3: Agentic travel → search ad cannibalization → GOOGL ad-mix risk (Source → Inference). 1st: Agents answer "cheapest 500 sq ft room on the north Strip" directly (Brown). 2nd: Travel search queries, and the ad clicks attached to them, fall (Brown, unverified #2–3 category claim). 3rd (Inference): Inventory owners such as BKNG may gain bargaining power as agents need supply, while search intermediation loses. This is the reverse of the basket's implicit bet. Disconfirm: Google monetizes agentic booking (ads or commission) at a rate similar to search. External check needed on travel's share of Google ad revenue.
Chain 4: 10-year near 5% plus quality unwind → multiple compression → PE/strategic M&A floor (Source → Inference). 1st: Compression everywhere except staples, and "money isn't free" (Source). 2nd: Cheap, low-leverage franchises with no controlling holder (POOL, BR) become take-private or strategic targets. Boyar: acquisition "wouldn't shock me," but with "interest rates this high, who knows?" 3rd (Inference): High rates both cheapen targets and raise LBO financing costs. So the M&A floor is more likely strategic (Berkshire-type buyers, Diller/IAC-type) than levered PE. The Diller withdrawal from MGM shows bids can be pulled. Confirm: strategic or insider bids in de-rated names. Disconfirm: bids withdrawn or re-cut lower (MGM precedent).
Chain 5: Junk rally / most-shorted squeeze → pod de-grossing → quality names are the funding source (Source → Inference). 1st: Most-shorted +40%, long/short −23% (Source). 2nd: Pods short quality and long junk, or get squeezed and cut, and tight stops amplify the moves (Source). 3rd (Inference): When the squeeze exhausts (short-interest normalizes, junk momentum breaks), quality/GARP names could see funding flows reverse. That regime change is the macro catalyst the hated-names thesis needs. Confirm: a break in most-shorted basket momentum plus quality-factor stabilization. Disconfirm: junk leadership persisting into year-end. External: basket data.
Horizons: near means through the Q3 print season (Oct–Nov 2026). Medium means 2–4 quarters. Probabilities are my inference for research prioritization; the speakers gave no odds. The thesis tested is: AI-headline basket de-ratings of weakly exposed franchises (BKNG, ABNB, BR, NYT, SCHW/LPL/RJF) mean-revert as fundamentals print.
Assumptions: Q3 prints show KPIs intact (room nights, subs, proxy volumes, client assets). One or more AI-lab partnerships with travel or fin-infra incumbents, following the CRM template. The most-shorted/junk rally breaks and the quality factor stabilizes. The 10-year eases from about 5%, oil falls, Iran is resolved. Strategic bids appear (Diller returns to MGM; BR/POOL interest). Winners (hypotheses): Noise-exposure names in the basket (NYT, SCHW, BR, BKNG). IGV constituents hit on AI headlines that later partner. POOL/QSR on rate relief. Losers: Late shorts in the consumer-inertia basket. Most-shorted junk leaders. Leading indicators: Smaller launch-day drawdowns on the next AI-app event. Partnership announcements. Insider buying spreading beyond UBER. The 10-year trend (External).
Assumptions: Dispersion without broad re-rating. Names that print clean (BKNG, NYT, BR) stabilize. Names with real or unresolved exposure (PLNT, EXPE, ABNB multiple) keep drifting, because "15x is not the bottom." Each AI launch replays the basket hit. The 10-year stays near 5% and compression persists outside staples. UBER stays range-bound despite insider buying. Winners: Selective, event-driven research (buy-the-panic tests measured on 20–60 day recovery), plus stock-picking within the basket rather than basket beta. Losers: Treating "hated" as a factor. Anyone expecting a CRM-style partnership on schedule. Leading indicators: Mixed recoveries across the named list, and headline beta that stays elevated but not rising.
Assumptions: Agentic commerce actually shifts economics, whether through take-rate compression, marketing-cost inflation, cancellations or adviser substitution. AI labs build their own inventory or partner exclusively with rivals. The 10-year pushes above 5% and compression spreads (the staples exception fades). The junk/momentum regime persists. The de-rating becomes an earnings downgrade (the NKE pattern: "cut in half, still not be cheap"). Winners: AI labs and agent platforms, and (under Chain 3) inventory owners that partner. Short-duration and cash. Losers: The whole hated list, POOL (rates/HELOC), QSR (beef + GLP-1), casinos/VICI (China, consumer), and a GOOGL travel-ad sub-thesis if agents disintermediate search. Leading indicators: A negative KPI inflection on prints, partnership exclusivity going to competitors, bids re-cut or withdrawn, and a new YTD low in the quality factor (External).
Scenario use: Re-score after Q3 prints, the next AI-app launch reaction, and live marks from TV/IBKR. Don't freeze the spoken levels.
Hypotheses for diligence, not buy/sell tickets. Levels are as spoken, unverified, and not live marks. External check needed on all of them.
| Asset / sleeve | Thesis link (Source) | Metrics to watch | Catalysts | Risks / disconfirm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | Owned by Boyar. Agents lack inventory, so "positive for booking." Spoken fall 215→157 in September (level inconsistent with expected share scale; External check) | Room nights, take-rate, performance-marketing % of revenue, AI-agent referral share | Q3 print; AI-lab partnership (Brown's view); oil/Iran | Agent aggregation compresses take-rate; exclusivity goes to rival |
| ABNB | "Nonsensical" AI selloff. 150→190→150; ~15x forward (Brown: "not the bottom") | Nights booked, supply growth, direct-traffic share | Print; partnership; AI fears fade | Multiple keeps de-rating despite fundamentals |
| EXPE | In the basket. Boyar prefers BKNG | Relative KPI vs BKNG | Same | Possibly the more exposed name (dispersion hypothesis) |
| BR (Broadridge) | ~80% proxy share, 63% recurring revenue, 280→~160 (−25% YTD), EV ~$20B, second-worst drawdown since GFC | Recurring revenue growth, proxy/position growth, tokenization pilot adoption | "Realizing tokens won't kill business"; possible M&A | Tokenization actually removes intermediation; high rates deter buyers |
| NYT | −7.2% in a couple of days, "not at risk at all" | Net subscriber adds, churn, ARPU | Next print | Subscription-cancel agents measurably raise churn |
| SCHW / LPL / RJF | Fall on every AI headline; ~10% drop on Hazel launch; "reflexive counter trade" | Client asset flows, cash-sweep balances, adviser headcount | Next AI-adviser launch reaction; prints | Real sensitivity may be cash-sweep / rates, not AI (test) |
| PLNT | Hosts concede subscription-cancel exposure | Member churn | Agent adoption data | Real exposure. Use as the control name |
| ADBE / IGV (sleeve) | ADBE in "down on any AI headline" list; CRM–Anthropic template | IGV headline beta on launch days; partnership calendar | Lab partnerships, Dreamforce-style events | Software multiples can keep de-rating; "don't get married" |
| CRM (precedent) | Rebound after Anthropic partnership | Post-partnership multiple durability | — | Template may not generalize |
| UBER | Insiders ~$10M CEO / ~$5M CFO, buyback, ~$10B 2027 FCF (from memory), 20–30% growth, "$100 stock not too long ago" | FCF vs consensus, buyback pace, AV partnership economics | Tender/larger buyback; headline gap-up (META analog) | Drifts to ~12x (Brown); AV disruption (Waymo/Tesla) |
| POOL | 500+ → $167, ~15x (GFC/9/11 trough) vs 55x peak; new builds ~60k/yr decade-low; low leverage, no controlling holder | New-pool permits, maintenance revenue share, HELOC rates | Rate relief; strategic/PE interest | Rate-sensitive; bottom unknown; Berkshire exit |
| QSR | Doyle-led BK NA turnaround "halfway"; 3–4% yield; EV ~$45B; 3G | BK NA comps, franchisee economics, beef costs | Comps inflection | 20–25% beef inflation; GLP-1; 3G overhang |
| MGM | ~16x; Japan 2031 "only casino," 4–5y head start, partner-owned; Diller may return (bid figures ASR-garbled) | Japan IR ownership %, timeline, sell-side model inclusion; BetMGM share | Diller/IAC re-bid; Japan milestones | China exposure; bid withdrawn; Canadian visitation |
| LVS / WYNN / FLUT / DKNG / VICI | LVS 70→38; Flutter at ATL; VICI 33→23; HOOD entering betting | Macau GGR, handle/hold, prediction-market regulation | Kalshi-type regulation (Boyar expects) | Competitive intensity; China; REIT refinancing |
| CMCSA | 5–6x EBITDA, NBCU/broadband split, Roberts may exit; "less interesting" | Broadband net adds vs FWA/Starlink | Split execution | Structural broadband erosion |
| MCD / COST / WMT / CTAS (quality factor) | MCD −29%/144d; COST/WMT 40–50x (Nifty Fifty comparison) | Quality-factor spread; staples multiples | Factor rotation | Quality unwind continues |
| Goldman most-shorted / consumer-inertia baskets | +40% YTD most-shorted; L/S −23% | Constituents, performance, launch-day moves | — | Data access (External) |
| GOOGL (travel ads sub-thesis) | Travel maybe #2–3 ad category (unverified) | Travel ad share; agentic-booking monetization | Gemini agent booking features | Google monetizes agents fully |
| ARKF (sleeve) | HOOD entering betting/prediction markets; broker AI-headline pattern | Holdings overlap with named names (External) | Prediction-market regulation | Weak direct mapping; don't overstate |
Thesis risk: The "not really exposed" judgment comes from a long-only value manager's rebuttals, without data ("I don't have statistics"). Agentic commerce could erode take-rates, marketing efficiency or subscription retention in ways that don't show up for several quarters, which is the NKE pattern where earnings and the multiple fall together. Brown himself is "in the middle" on BKNG. The broker sensitivity may be about rates and cash sweeps, not AI.
Timing risk: Brown: "15 times is not the bottom" and "right on the fundamentals and still wrong on the stock." The junk-over-quality regime and a 10-year near 5% can extend de-ratings. Catalysts are vague (Boyar: "no one concrete thing"). Partnerships may not arrive, since firms "don't want to get married." UBER shows insider buying doesn't produce a near-term re-rate. Boyar's own horizon is 3–10 years, which doesn't match desk horizons.
Execution / expression risk: Headline beta cuts both ways. The next AI launch can re-hit the same names before recovery. Pod-driven moves overshoot "in both directions" (the basket may rip on a partnership and drop on the next launch). Treating "hated" as a factor rather than name-by-name diligence runs into the dispersion the thesis itself predicts. Mapping to IGV or ARKF is indirect: the named names mostly sit outside those sleeves (holdings External check).
External / identification risk: This is ASR-only, with no diarization. App names, the Hazel acquisition clause and Diller/MGM bid figures are garbled and excluded. The BKNG level looks inconsistent. The "Klotchko" chart author, travel as the #2–3 Google ad category, and the Hard Rock $500M (the speaker "didn't independently verify") are unverified. The recording date is unknown, so "today" moves (MGM −10%, Flutter ATL) aren't dated. Boyar is an interested party (holdings plus a research product).
Process risk: Don't merge with the TCAF 259 memo (Nordvig) or other desk AI memos without External / other desk labels. No live marks were pulled, so any desk use needs TV/IBKR read-only marks with the check time recorded. Don't email, publish or message from this draft.
| Item | Spoken claim | Timestamp | Caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock-picking hit rate, 10y | 23.2% of top 500 beat index | 0:10:33 | Adam Parker data. External |
| Hit rate, 3y | 27.7%, declining since 2002 | 0:11:04 | External |
| MSFT prior high | ~579 | 0:06:55 | "or whatever it was" |
| KO 1998 | ~60x earnings | 0:07:56 | Buffett anecdote |
| Most-shorted basket | +40% YTD | 0:17:15 | Chart author ASR-uncertain |
| Long/short spread | −23% | 0:17:47 | Same |
| MCD | −29% over 144 days, Feb peak | 0:17:47 | External |
| WMT / COST multiples | ~40–50x | 0:18:48 | Approximate |
| NYT | −7.2% over a couple of days | 0:22:59 | External |
| SCHW/LPL/RJF on Hazel launch | ~−10% | 0:25:06 | External. Acquisition clause garbled |
| Pod stop-outs | Down 2–3% (Boyar); ~5%/month (Brown) | 0:25:37–0:26:40 | Anecdotal |
| UBER insider buys | ~$10M CEO, ~$5M CFO | 0:28:14 | External |
| UBER growth / FCF | 20–30%/yr; ~$10B 2027 FCF | 0:28:46, 0:30:22 | "From memory" |
| UBER prior level | ~$100 | 0:31:24 | External |
| UBER bear multiple | ~12x earnings (Brown) | 0:28:46 | Opinion |
| Fresh Looks | 14 names; 200-stock universe | 0:33:28–0:34:30 | — |
| 10-year yield | ~5% (host framing) | 0:35:01 | External |
| BR | 280 → ~160; −25% YTD; ~80% proxy share; 63% recurring revenue; EV ~$20B | 0:36:36–0:39:12 | External |
| ChatGPT instant checkout | Launched Sept 2025, pulled back by March | 0:40:45 | External |
| BKNG | 215 → 157 in September | 0:43:52 | Level inconsistent with expected scale; External |
| Travel share of Google ads | #2–3 category | 0:43:52 | "I read this somewhere." External |
| ABNB | 150 → 190 → 150; ~15x forward | 0:45:24–0:45:54 | External |
| POOL | 500+ → $167; ~15x now; 55x COVID peak; 17–18x at summer write-up; $20 in 2009 | 0:49:33–0:51:07 | External |
| New US pools | ~60k/yr avg last 2 years (decade low) | 0:47:59 | External |
| POOL COVID revenue growth | ~27% annualized | 0:49:03 | External |
| QSR | Beef inflation 20–25%; yield 3–4%; EV ~$45B | 0:54:46–0:55:48 | External |
| CMCSA | ~5–6x EBITDA | 0:57:20 | External |
| MGM | −10% "today"; ~16x; Japan 2031; 4–5y head start | 0:59:53–1:00:54 | Bid figures ASR-garbled, not quoted |
| Hard Rock Florida | ~$500M for exclusive app | 1:00:54 | Speaker unverified |
| LVS | $70 (Dec) → $38 | 1:02:28 | External |
| VICI | 33 → 23; 103 assets | 1:04:00 | External |
External checks needed (none verified here, and no market data was fetched):
ASR / attribution flags:
Document control: Saved to /workspace/pm-memos/2026-09-27-tcaf-261-boyar-hated-stocks.md. Published to the desk library on 27 Sep 2026: https://andrepow.here.now/memos/tcaf-261-boyar-hated-stocks/. Not emailed or forwarded. Per the 2026-09-13 decision, Erica normally auto-forwards TCAF memos to Angela, but this run was explicitly scoped to "write the file and report back," so no forward was sent. Nothing was traded.
End of memo.
Desk copy · not a trade recommendation · Erica · 27 Sep 2026